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Soy Market Closed Lower

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After soaking in the new numbers, the front month futures ended down by 1 to 3 cents, with the nearbys the weaker. Soybean meal futures closed with $1.60 to $1.80/ton gains in the nearbys, while in delivery May futures were $2.30 higher on limited OI. Bean oil ended the session with 21 to 23 point losses. The May forecast for 2020/21 soybean production is 4.125 bbu, which was below pre-report expectations. New crop crush is estimated at 2.13 bbu, which would yield 24.685 b lbs of bean oil and 50.25m tons of meal. 2020/21 exports were listed at 2.05 bbu, which would be the highest since 17/18, and only the 3rd MY on record to crack 2 bbu. New crop soy ending stocks are seen at 405 mbu. USDA increased old crop soy ending stocks 100 mbu to 580 mbu; traders were expecting about a 15 mbu increase. The increase to carryout came via additional cuts to exports. 2019/20 exports are down 100 mbu from April now forecasted to be 1,675 mbu. This morning, USDA’s mandatory reporting system confirmed a purchase of 136,000 MT of old crop soybeans sold to China. USDA decreased their estimate for Brazil’s soybean production from 124.5 to 124 MMT. CONAB increased their forecast for 2019/20 Brazilian soybean production by 1.7 MMT to 120.3. There is still a difference of opinion there! The WASDE’s estimate for global soybean trade in 2020/21 is 161.93 MMT, which is up 10 MMT from 19/20. China will be the destination for 61% of all soybean exports, compared to last year where they made up 59% of the market.

May 20 Soybeans closed at $8.49 1/4, down 3 cents,
Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.52, down 3 cents,
Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.53 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,
Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.53 1/4, down 2 cents,
Jul 20 Soybean Meal closed at $292.10, up $1.80
Jul 20 Soybean Oil closed at $26.26, down $0.23

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